Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.