Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.